Study on Application of Value - at - Risk to the Risk Evaluation of Construction Project Bidding
ZHANG Ying - bao
DOI:10.11835/j.issn.1674-4764.2006.04.029
Received December 20, 2005,Revised December 20, 2005, Accepted , Available online July 01, 2015
Volume ,2006,Pages 114-117
- Abstract
The value-at-risk(VaR) model is a statistical model to estimate and control financial risk,and used to measure the most probable loss on the next deal stage of financial asset portfolio.Based on the principle of the value-at-risk,in this paper the value-at-risk is to be applied to the risk evaluation of construction project.Assuming the sub-project prices abide by the BQ model are random variable which conform to normal distribution,this paper has built up the portfolio of project according to biding and quoted price of construction project,and adopted the variance-covariance method to measure the value-at-risk of the biding and quoted price in order to provide a feasible risk analysis tool for the evaluation of construction project bidding.