Joint Probabilistic Structure of Rainfall in Analysis of Landslides Probability
FAN Wenliang,CHEN Zhaohui,LI Zhengliang,YU Dexiang and WANG Qing
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-4764.2012.05.009
Received ,Revised , Accepted , Available online July 01, 2015
Volume ,2012,Pages 57-63
- Abstract
Rainfall is the main input for probabilistic analysis and prediction of rainfall-triggered landslide. The joint probabilistic structure of daily rainfall (DR) and cumulative rainfall (CR), which are dominant parameters of rainfall related on landslide in Chongqing region, was analyzed. Following the traditional technology, daily rainfall was translated into discrete variable by rainfall grade and cumulative rainfall became continuous variable if records with very small cumulative rainfall were ignored. Then joint probabilistic model of discrete variable and continuous one was derived, and transiting solution of conditional density function was put forward, together with its approximation via a family of Dirac δ sequences. Naturally, the proposed method was used to analyze conditional density function of cumulative rainfall in Chongqing region, and the numerical results were verified by comparison. However, most of the conditional density functions were irregular and not modeled by simple probability density function, thus the finite mixture distribution was introduced, which is of uncomplicated format and relatively high precision. At last, the joint probabilistic model of daily rainfall and cumulative rainfall was built up by combining frequency function of grade of daily rainfall with conditional density model of cumulative rainfall.